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May 9,
2008
DJIA: 12,867
Easy does it . . . or does it? With the averages moving to
higher highs recently, it’s hard to complain. Breadth has pretty much kept pace
and the “breakout” in the Industrials, confirming the Transports, means good
things Dow Theory-wise. Then, too, that Dow Theory sell back in January wasn’t
exactly timely. But the real issue here is one of momentum, or the lack
thereof. The Dow is up some 1000 points since the March 17 low, but you sure
didn’t want to miss those 7 days that saw the Dow gain 1700 points. No one
expects the market to be up big everyday, but after almost two months of rally
you can’t exactly call the technical background dynamic. Of course, that’s not
to say going up isn’t good, but poor momentum eventually turns to no momentum, a
market that’s vulnerable. And, next thing you know, days like Wednesday happen.
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